All Blacks 2025
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@nzzp said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
And AB coaches with worse winning percentages than Razor - McDonald, Morrison, Marslin, Sullivan, Vodanovic, Stewart, Watson, Mains, Smith, Foster.
We definitely shouldn't appoint anyone whose name begins with M or S - sorry Joe!
so good work circling the Cantab wagons and setting up a straw man.
Question for me is this: would Razor have been better off coaching in a different environment after a few years of success - ie heading offshore in 2019. I would say yes - the experience you get is huge and drives massive development as a coach.
Sir Graham talked about how much he learned and changed as a coach as a result of Wales and particularly the Lions. It matters. More of the same doesn't lead to growth or prepare you for the different challenges that get thrown your way.
Anyway, it is what it is. The conservatism in selection is what has amazed me the most. I still can't understand the thinking behind it.
@No-Quarter said, "he's currently right down the bottom of the list of AB coaches by win rate. " I was just pointing out that he's really not. He's slightly below average.
A thing about guys disappearing overseas is that many or even most of them don't come back - at least not in the window when they're at their peak. The AB coaching job only comes up occasionally and if you're under contract elsewhere then you miss out.
I'd forgotten about Ryan and Fiji.
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Just disproven as the ABs literally took Ryan from his Fiji contract.
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Also, if he had been under contract until a WC, he would have been in an ideal situation to take over the position.
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@gt12 I'm really talking about some of the big guns who should be contenders as ABs coach, who did their overseas time with big teams - Deans, Gatland, Rennie, Cotter.
Vern's come back, but it's too late for him - I believe he's only taking the Blues on a year-by-year basis? Too late for Robbie and Warren. Rennie's into his 60s, as well - is he an option for 2031?
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@gt12 I'm really talking about some of the big guns who should be contenders as ABs coach, who did their overseas time with big teams - Deans, Gatland, Rennie, Cotter.
Vern's come back, but it's too late for him - I believe he's only taking the Blues on a year-by-year basis? Too late for Robbie and Warren. Rennie's into his 60s, as well - is he an option for 2031?
Vern Cotter: 63
Robbie Deans: 66
Gatland: 62
Rennie: 61Razor: 51
One of these things is not like the other.
I notice you didn't bring up Jamie Joseph (55), who has been overseas and is now back looking for the role and is a contemporary.
McMillan is now overseas and will likely have a great CV to challenge (especially for an Asst. role) in a couple of years.Had Razor gone overseas in 2019 after being passed over for the AB role, he would have been the ideal age to come and have a go at the role.
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@gt12 said in All Blacks 2025:
@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
@gt12 I'm really talking about some of the big guns who should be contenders as ABs coach, who did their overseas time with big teams - Deans, Gatland, Rennie, Cotter.
Vern's come back, but it's too late for him - I believe he's only taking the Blues on a year-by-year basis? Too late for Robbie and Warren. Rennie's into his 60s, as well - is he an option for 2031?
Vern Cotter: 63
Robbie Deans: 66
Gatland: 62
Rennie: 61Razor: 51
Had Razor gone overseas in 2019 after being passed over for the AB role, he would have been the ideal age to come and have a go at the role.
If he'd come back. He might have been locked in with Scotland or whomever and missed the boat.
Those other guys left and didn't come back is the point I'm making.
Jamie's one who has come back and competed.
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@gt12 Yeah - but, did they apply?
Jamie did.
I'm pretty certain Joe didn't.
If there were other applicants, they weren't made public and didn't appear to make the final rounds. It seemed pretty clearly Razor vs Jamie.
If Razor wasn't there, it might have been Fozzie vs Jamie.
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
And AB coaches with worse winning percentages than Razor - McDonald, Morrison, Marslin, Sullivan, Vodanovic, Stewart, Watson, Mains, Smith, Foster.
We definitely shouldn't appoint anyone whose name begins with M or S - sorry Joe!
Now days its fair to compare Razor to pro era coaches compared to amatuers. In that context Razors win rate is similar to Wayne Smiths and Fosters. It might be marginally better but its in the same range.
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Personally I think once you hit 60+ most coaches are past their best. Guys like Gatland and Jones are well past their best.
Coaches who played in the pro era with bigger players are probably more prone to CTE etc too. So it may be younger from this time on when coaches reach their best.
The only other viable options were probably Schmidt and Joseph as head coach. Schmidt seemed to rule himself didn't he?
So it was just Joseph. He's a valid option but at the time Robertson was selected there wasn't really a lot of resistance. In hindsight maybe Robertson wasn't the best pick and he kind of bottled it with his jobs for the boys picks.
That said I do think Robertson would have benefited with someone like Cotter in his team and I do think he would make a better forwards coach and selector than Ryan whos a good tight five coach but an abject failure as a loose forward coach.
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@brodean Yeah.
And the reality is that at 7/9 this year, Razor's not remotely close to getting sacked. As long as he avoids 0/4 on the EOYT he's pretty much locked in for RWC2027 (he probably is regardless).
So the earliest someone like Dave Rennie is getting the job is a couple of years from now - and he's going to be 67 going to RWC 2031. Can't see it happening.
I reckon late-40s/early-50s is the ideal age.
Who's floating around in that age bracket for 2027 if Razor fails at RWC?
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Yeah, Razor ain't going anywhere pre 2027 WC.
I'd however, be surprised if he was our coach in 2028 whatever happens at the World Cup.
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I think you'll find that a lack of applicants may be due to the fact that it was clear to everyone that the job was Razors...
The best example here is Graham Henry.
Passed over for the big job, went overseas. Was successful and not, but when he came back he knew what to do to make us the best in the world.Strangely enough, he was the one (from reports floating around here, at least) who wanted Razor to have some real world experience overseas.
NZRU under Robinson or Ted, hard decision to decide who to trust there.
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@Chris-B said in All Blacks 2025:
I reckon late-40s/early-50s is the ideal age.
Who's floating around in that age bracket for 2027 if Razor fails at RWC?
If my maths is right, Mark Hammett will be 55 in July 2027..
Also in your golden period target area is Nick Evans!
Oh and Carlos Spencer! -
no matter how tightly the cantabs circle the wagons and chuck out the win/loss stats, the fact that this is the state of the chat around the national team on the eve of a tour is telling in itself.
FWIW i also don't believe that Razor is in any way in danger of getting the arse before the world cup. This coach and this playing group are locked in for the next two years at least. We just got to hope they pay attention to all the learnings.
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100%
I actually think it is the right choice to get rid of assistants if they aren't on the same page. I'm just responding to the Cantab wagon circling because I finally have a slow morning.
The AB job must feel like building a plane while flying it it. To me, right now, it also seems like most of the coaching team are also trying to get their international certifications at the same time. That's not high performance.
By the way @Chris-B I think Henry was 57 when appointed to the top job, so had Razor left in 2019, we'd be perfectly on target for his return in 2023 or 2027.
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@nzzp said in All Blacks 2025:
@canefan said in All Blacks 2025:
How old was GH when he became AB coach?
Born 1946, appointed, appointed 2003 so 57
Missed out in 99 I think, when he would have been 53
Thanks. So he had considerable experience by the time he got appointed. And even then it took him two cycles to win Bill
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@nzzp said in All Blacks 2025:
@canefan said in All Blacks 2025:
How old was GH when he became AB coach?
Born 1946, appointed, appointed 2003 so 57
Missed out in 99 I think, when he would have been 53
They probably should have given him the job in '99.
Smithy was 42 so pretty youthful.
Mitch was 37 when he got the job and way too young and inexperienced.
I think they actually banned Graham for a while when he jumped on the plane to Wales.
