Super Rugby 2024
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Teams will need five or six wins to make the playoffs, so it's going to be a tight fit at the bottom.
Brumbies will get a hiding next week (low tackle percentage), but might have the easiest run home.
The Rebels (five wins, four bonus points) are in some danger of dropping out with their tough run home. Their most winnable games might all be away fixtures: Crusaders, Reds, Brumbies, Drua. They may only need one more bonus point to clinch a playoff spot though.
The Chiefs have four very winnable games left, and will probably get a home quarter final.
The Reds (three wins, five bonus points) will target the Highlanders (H), Crusaders (A), Rebels (H), Force (H), and Waratahs (A), and should just squeak home.
That leaves two more places in the playoffs.
The Drua (three wins) only have one bonus point, so will need three wins. MP, Reds, and Rebels are all at home.
MP have the same wins and BPs, but one less game remaining. They have a tough run home and may well dip out.
The Tahs have two wins and four bonus points. They will target these four games: Brumbies (H), Force (A), MP (A), Reds (H). Three from four plus a bonus point or two is a tough ask. Probably miss out.
The Highlanders have two wins and three bonus points. Five of their games are winnable: Reds (A), Force (H), MP (A), Crusaders (H), Drua (H). Probably win three. Real danger of missing out. Crusaders game is huge for their season.
Crusaders: one (1) win, three bonus points. Remaining games: Force (A), Rebels (H), Reds (H), Highlanders (A), Brumbies (A), Blues (H), MP (H). If they can beat the Force (A), Rebels (H), Reds (H), and MP (H) then they have a chance. Hasn't happened this year though.
Force: isn't happening.
Predictions?
Hurricanes
Blues
Brumbies
Chiefs
Reds
Rebels
Drua
HighlandersSix wins could well be the dividing line.
Hurricanes vs. Blues final. Defence wins big matches.
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Imagine destroying the second best team in NZ, and the biggest and most passionate rivalry in NZ rugby, just so you could maintain the shittiest team in one of NZ's absolute shit towns that only had 100 thousand people on a good day. Fuck NZR, and get rid of the Highlanders as soon as possible. Disgusting.
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@gt12 Some of the selections this year have been a bit odd. Is Parker injured? He should have started ahead of Sititi.
@Tim Parker played in thier dev team.
Bit tough he keeps getting played at 7, when he ain't one.
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@Tim said in Super Rugby 2024:
@Duluth Given the Chiefs' poor away form so far, that must be a concern for them.
Chiefs have lost all their away games so far.
@Tim said in Super Rugby 2024:
@Tim said in Super Rugby 2024:
@Duluth Given the Chiefs' poor away form so far, that must be a concern for them.
Chiefs have lost all their away games so far.
And last year the Chiefs were undefeated away from home.
I think it's more about winning the games that count, as the Blues and Chiefs fans know.
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Highlanders and Blues tasks of beating the Reds away just got a bit easier -
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https://y.yarn.co/34640a2e-cfc5-44b0-84d1-80b9bc83a332_text.gif
Actually, we all know it will be two
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Given the table, should NZR be questioning the wisdom of having a SR franchise in the South Island?
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lets not forget that the crusaders and highlanders have won half of all super rugby titles (13/26) between them :smiling_face_with_sunglasses:
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@Bones said in Super Rugby 2024:
@delicatessen said in Super Rugby 2024:
@Bones said in Super Rugby 2024:
Ball carriers hitting the ground as a result of a tackle attempt, being millimetres out of someone's grasp and being allowed to get up and go again, because they weren't "held".
It's happening way too much in super rugby this year - at least fucken make them release the ball if they've hit the ground, but this isn't happening.
What's the law here? Just need to touch ball carrier when he's tackled? In which case they're well within their rights to do what you're saying. A miss is as good as a mile.
How did they end up on the ground? What's the law on not releasing the ball when on the ground?
Was genuinely asking. Presumably the 'not held' call means a tackle hasn't been completed. If someone falls over while receiving a deep kick do they have to release the ball?
I would be way more/less sure of my ground if I could be arsed looking up the relevant laws.
@delicatessen said in Super Rugby 2024:
@Bones said in Super Rugby 2024:
@delicatessen said in Super Rugby 2024:
@Bones said in Super Rugby 2024:
Ball carriers hitting the ground as a result of a tackle attempt, being millimetres out of someone's grasp and being allowed to get up and go again, because they weren't "held".
It's happening way too much in super rugby this year - at least fucken make them release the ball if they've hit the ground, but this isn't happening.
What's the law here? Just need to touch ball carrier when he's tackled? In which case they're well within their rights to do what you're saying. A miss is as good as a mile.
How did they end up on the ground? What's the law on not releasing the ball when on the ground?
Was genuinely asking. Presumably the 'not held' call means a tackle hasn't been completed. If someone falls over while receiving a deep kick do they have to release the ball?
I would be way more/less sure of my ground if I could be arsed looking up the relevant laws.
No wouldn't have to release ball until somone get's there, he can get up without releasing ball etc as there no tackle involved, and probably as long as he on feet when he catches ball he ok.
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How are the Aussie sides doing against NZ opposition?
Aussies vs Matches Aussies Wins Blues 2 0 Chiefs 2 1 Hurricanes 3 0 Crusaders 2 2 Highlanders 3 2 Total 12 5 A huge improvement from a few years ago. Relatively spread out too with 3 NZ sides losing at least once to an Aussie side
Looking at it from the other direction:
Aussie Team Matches vs NZ Sides Wins vs NZ sides Brumbies 2 1 Force 2 0 Reds 2 1 Rebels 2 1 Waratahs 4 2 Total 12 5 Again, relatively spread out, 4 of the 5 Aussie sides have picked up a win against NZ opposition
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Little factoid, saders, canes, and Landers are all fielding only one player each in their 23s from last year's RWC squad! Blues are rolling in ABs riches with 5! How often were there only 8 current ABs playing in a round of SR?
Note this is a quick thought reading the team sheets, accuracy not assured
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Little factoid, saders, canes, and Landers are all fielding only one player each in their 23s from last year's RWC squad! Blues are rolling in ABs riches with 5! How often were there only 8 current ABs playing in a round of SR?
Note this is a quick thought reading the team sheets, accuracy not assured
@Machpants said in Super Rugby 2024:
How often were there only 8 current ABs playing in a round of SR?
Year after a RWC? Lots of injuries/retirements/overseas
